🔗 Share this article

Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of government. But, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.