Why Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned talks on the near lengthy conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
  • Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in the president's attempts to mediate an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get Russia done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to move the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a short period, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that ending the war is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Eric Walker
Eric Walker

A physicist and gaming enthusiast passionate about making quantum concepts accessible to all through creative storytelling.